A different twist has arisen on the public vs. private sector debate and who to trust. These days most would say neither could be trusted but the truth is somewhat more involved.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted that the rate of hiring amongst businesses in the UK will fall in 2015 whilst results from a survey undertaken by Manpower Group suggests the opposite and that Britain’s large companies will be accelerating recruitment levels in the new year.
History is not on the side of the OBR who made a similar prediction for 2014 only to be found wanting.
In contrast, Manpower’s survey of more than 2,000 businesses revealed that they expect unemployment to continue fall rapidly over the coming months with the rate of hiring in 2014 already far higher than most experts predicted.
That growth however has come at a cost with poor productivity levels a continued feature of the market as well as minimal wage growth. Although in November official figures showed that average wage growth had marginally overtaken the level inflation for the first time in five years.
The Manpower survey revealed that whilst businesses expected the whole market to see hiring growth, the balance was amongst larger businesses.
The ‘net’ balance of businesses expecting recruitment across the market in Q1 2015 was 7% compared to 21% for large companies.
According to Manpower that is the highest level of recruitment planning in a decade.
Similar to previous surveys it was the North East and the utilities and construction sectors who had the most positive outlook for adding staff, this however was tempered when the profile of employment was considered where much of the growth was anticipated in call centre roles which operate in the lower percentiles of wage levels.
Mark Cahill, Manpower Group’s UK Managing Director announcing the results said:
“2015 will begin with employers in an even more confident position [than 2014] and we are optimistic about job prospects for the rest of the year.
“Many big businesses built up large cash reserves in the downturn [and] now that confidence is returning they have money to invest in infrastructure and growing their businesses.”
Here’s hoping the OBR are wrong once more.